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Friday 5 August 2011

Why the US and the World Can Live With a Nuclear Iran


The United States has had terrible relations with Iran since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, when several American embassy employees were taken hostage. But the hostilities have been taken to new levels, ever since Iran began its pursuit of WMD, specifically, since it began its nuclear program.
In 2002, Present Bush named Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as part of his "axis of evil". The mutual hostilities were taken to a new level after the radical and outspoken Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected Prime Minister of Iran in 2005.
Ahmadinejad escalated the nuclear program begun in the 1990s, and with it, he escalated tensions with the US, the UN, the international community in general, and especially Israel. While Iran repeatedly insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful, civilian purposes, the world grows increasingly suspicious that it could be used for the opposite reason. While the US does everything in its power to limit Iran's nuclear program, the question is repeatedly brought up: Were Iran to acquire WMD, what would be the consequences for the world?
The answer to that question is that a nuclear Iran would do little to threaten US interests in the region, or indeed, in the world. Let us start with a quote from President Bush: "The threat from Iran is, of course, their stated objective to destroy our strong ally Israel."
The threat posed by Iran towards Israel and the US is greatly exaggerated. If Iran did indeed acquire nuclear weapons, attacking the US or Israel would be suicidal, considering that Israel and the US have powerful nuclear arsenals of their own. Iran would face immediate, and devastating, retaliation, and would likely be devastating to Iran, and its infrastructure. Therefore, Iran could not use these weapons to blackmail Israel or the US.
Now there is the idea that Ahmadinejad is an irrational dictator who doesn't value human life, and that Ahmadinejad might pull the trigger anyway. However, one must look at history, to see what will happen in the future. The US believed Mao and Stalin to be dangerous and irrational dictators, and they were. The US believed that they would not hesitate to risk millions of Chinese and Soviet lives and they did not (many examples come to mind: Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, Stalin's purges). However even Mao and Stalin, as irrational and disregarding of lives as they were, never dared to launch nuclear war, because they were afraid of retaliation. Soviet Union and China's nuclear conduct turned out to be quite prudent. And let us not forget that the Soviet Union and China had the capacity to fully destroy the US many times over, unlike Iran's likely arsenal.
Now, one can never be sure that some leader might not commit suicidal action anyway, but this irrational leader could never launch this attack on his own; it would take the work of many others, all of whom would have to agree to embrace martyrdom as well. In Iran, Ahmadinejad is not even in charge of the military, so launching an attack would require the work of hundreds of other men, who would also have to be willing to be martyrs.
Lastly, there is the fear that Iran might provide terrorist groups with nuclear arms. But is it likely, that after going through such risks to acquire such a weapon, Iran would simply give it up to a terrorist group, who would be much likely to get caught with them, and might not use the weapons in Iran's strategic interests, or worse yet, might betray Iran, and realign with the US? The answer is no, it is extremely unlikely for this to happen.
If the US can live with the likes of Pakistan, India, or Israel, having nuclear capabilities, then it can live with Iran as well. The idea of mutual destruction prevented nuclear war in the past, and there is no reason why it will not work in the future. Iran's actions, while irresponsible, are not unprecedented. Let us not forget that Israel is the only non-signatory of the NPT in the Middle East, and that Israel used similar tactics to elude UN inspectors at its Dimona reactor in the Negev Desert.
So while Iran's attempts at acquiring Nuclear Weapons may be slightly disturbing, there is no reason for them to be alarming. Israel's introduction of nuclear weapons to the Middle East will cause more of its regional adversaries to seek nuclear arsenals of their own, but mutual destruction makes it even less likely that these arsenals will ever be used.
Abdulla is a High School student. He is the original founder of ABT World News, and he specializes in Middle Eastern-United States politics, current events, and history. He has taken several online college courses, including The US and the Middle East since 1914 (Yale), and The US and the World since 1945 (Berkley). He has read several books on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and has a vivid understanding of its events. He follows the BBC and keeps himself up to date on what is happening around the world. He founded, and currently writes for.

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